Update for 4th May 2011

  Finally RBI Takes ( Late ) Action

• Nifty future has sold off as envisaged in the Monday's post, following the first firm action taken by the RBI against runaway inflation which has been running high uncontrolled hitherto, as both the central bank and the government were doing only some lip service on the inflation fighting front.

• If the present downtrend holds, Nifty futures may revisit the 5400 levels in the medium term. However, the contract may get support at the 5450 to 5500 area in the short run.
• This update is also limited to just the usual trading system data and charts.

    Nifty Futures - Intra-day Chart

   Nifty Futures  - Daily Chart 

Update for 3rd May 2011

  Market Awaits the RBI Action for Directions

• Nifty futures lost some 30 points on Monday but just kept itself above the previous swing low of 5700.
• The contract has recorded losses for the past six trading days, and therefore, is ripe for a short covering rally.
• However, any such market action would certainly be dependent on the outcome of RBI interest rate action. If the RBI limits the rate hike to just to 25 basis points ( repo and reverse repo rates ), a relief rally can be expected.
• Such a relief rally may still encounter resistance at around the Monday's high of 5790. 
• Monday's trading has not yet significantly changed the technical position of the market. For a detailed analysis of various market scenarios, please read the previous post which described the various market scenarios. 

    Nifty Futures - Intra-day Chart

   Nifty Futures  - Daily Chart