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Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Update for 23rd March 2011


 Nifty Future Poised Just Below the 5450 Resistance !

There has not been much happening in the stock markets off recently. Major indices and stocks are mostly trading sideways now a days. There are many reasons for this phase. Here are some of the reasons ! Stocks went northwards in to the realms of expensive valuations in the last quarter of the  previous year. Some of the stratospheric valuations have been corrected. The pivotal Stocks are neither cheap nor very expensive at present but most of them are retaining the bull market valuations still.  For example, the Nifty trailing Price Earnings Ratio, ( PE Ratio ) has corrected from the near 26 times levels to the 20 - 21 levels at present.  The so called mid and small caps have almost seen  a bear market by now. Now the uncertainty is about the adverse impact from the rising interest rates and inflation on the corporate profit growth. The small and midcaps are the first ones to fall in the face of any adversity. Now what is the future course ? Markets need conviction about the  resumption of unhindered profit growth of around 20 to 25 %. But no such triggers are seen available at present. Therefore, stocks are spending time, trading mostly in a sideways range, waiting for triggers. Until more clarity arrives or valuations become cheaper, stocks may behave like this.  No amount of analysis, neither technical nor fundamental, can be of much use in situations like these.

As there is no change in the technical position of the market for the reasons described above, this post is limited to just the usual charts, data and trading system updates. Please read the previous posts for supports and resistance levels.
  Nifty Futures - Intra-day Chart



Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Update for 22nd March 2011


  Nifty Future Poised Above the 5350 Support !


  • In the last post we said that the battle for the 5400 strike ( of Nifty Put Options ) is on and the result  of the battle is yet to be known.
  • However, Monday's ranged trading has not yet  lead to the resolution of the said battle. Yeah, the battle for the 5400 strike is still on.
  • Nifty futures opened slightly higher on Monday. It sold off towards the previously indicated lower support of 5350 in the morning session. The recovery from the low of 5357 ended at 5425, amid all round positive gains being recorded by stocks in all the major markets. Nifty futures finally closed lower at 5387.
  • The rising crude oil prices, worsening politics etc. seem to have started to affect the market negatively at present. It seems that the gains in the other major stock markets on Monday has helped Nifty futures to hang on to the 5350 support. 
  • The technical position of the market has not changed at all on Monday. Therefore, all supports ( 5350 & 5200 ) and resistances ( 5450, 5500 & 5550 ) as well as the different market scenarios discussed in the previous post(s) still remain valid as of now. 
  • As a matter of abundant caution, it may be noted that most of analysis and systems may fail if the market remains in a trading range. As such, if the Nifty contracts are not breaking the 5350 support, it may lead to a covering rally towards that  upper resistances.
  Nifty Futures - Intra-day Chart



    Nifty Futures  - Daily Chart