Update for 18th March 2011

 Nifty Futures Still Stuck in the Trading Range !

• Yeah, there is nothing more to write about except that Nifty future is still stuck in the trading range and that Indian stock market has seemingly attained some kind of resilience. But for how long ? No one knows !
• Following the huge losses in Europe and U S markets overnight, Nifty futures closed lower on Thursday. Many highly oversold stocks gained whereas some of the better stocks lost on Thursday.
• The technical position of the market remains more or less the same and therefore, it seems that no more comments are required ! ( Who wants to read the so called same old market commentaries repeatedly till the market does something interesting ? )
• Market has been spooking the bulls and bears alike for some times now. Now the only question remaining to be answered is whether the market is going to spook the straddle and strangle option writers in the current month or not ? Any breakout by the Nifty either way may lead to a scramble for covering by the option writers !

  Nifty Futures - Intra-day Chart

Update for 17th March 2011

Can Indian Stock Markets Become a Safe Haven ?

• Indian stock markets continued with the positive momentum of the previous day on Wednesday. Nifty futures opened slightly higher at 5477 and rallied to 5553 before settling for the day at 5529.
• However, Nifty future has not yet broken out of the trading range between 5350 and 5550.
• Though the general feeling or feedback being obtained from the screen and the charts  is pointing towards  a test of the upper resistances, the increasing uncertainty in Japan and elsewhere in the middle east may affect the positive indications at any time.
• European and U S stocks are plunging at the time of this post. Now the pertinent question is whether the Indian stock markets can become an isolated safe haven in the face of all round turbulence ?
• Even as the options markets ( March series ) are suggesting strong support for Nifty at around the 5400 strike, this author is forced to answer the above question negatively.
• Experience says that no market can remain isolated for long times and sooner or later all markets will be affected in panic situations. Experience also shows that the best stocks and markets also recover fast at the first sign of recoveries. 
• Now here are some quotes from the previous post which might be still relevant :
• "The triggers for the start of a downtrend is also rising in accordance with the Momentum Signal system. Moreover as has been observed  sometimes in the past, markets have a propensity to revisit the panic lows. Therefore, a revisit of the lower supports can not be ruled out even if the market gains on Wednesday on a rebound. "
• "... in case of any breakout happening in the market ,especially towards the lower side, that might force the option writers running for cover. This might aggravate the condition of the market as seen on the last derivative expiry day."  
     

  Nifty Futures - Intra-day Chart