Update for 25th February 2011

   Market Breaks the Trading Range and Dives !

• This blog had been warning that the upward momentum is waning and market is finding it very tough to break out above the supply zone between 5550 and 5600. It was also indicated that if the market is unable to move upwards, it will certainly test the lower supports and even break the lower supports. 
• The last post even said that though the Put writers may try to defend the 5400 level, it was too early to decide that the expiry may happen above the 5400 level, because of the rising crude oil prices.
• It was also indicated that the break from the trading range may happen in one of the last three days of the week. The only question which was left at the time writing that post was whether the Put writers would be able to defend the5400 level till the close of expiry.
• Since now we know that the Put sellers were unable to defend the 5400 level, let's examine what happened actually in Thursday's trading.

     Nifty Futures - Intra-day Chart 

 

Update for 24th February 2011

  The Derivative Expiry is Here !

• Following the negative cues from the international markets due to the Arab world unrest and the galloping crude oil prices,  Nifty futures opened slightly lower on Wednesday.
• We had indicated in the last post that Nifty future is trading in the no-man's-land and a failure to test the upper resistances may force it to test the lower supports.
• It was also indicated that the open interest data of February series Nifty options is placed in such a manner that the preferred expiry area as far as the options writers are concerned is between the 5400 and 5500 strikes.
• And it seems that the trading range of Wednesday has remained inside( or rather kept ) the indicated preferred range of the options sellers. However, it is too early to say that the expiry may happen in the the 5400 - 5500 range due to the worsening macro-economic factors due to the rising crude prices.

   Nifty Futures - Intra-day Chart    

      Nifty Futures  - Daily Chart