Update for 25th January 2011

  Is This the Start of an Uptrend ?

After spending an entire week for trading inside a narrow trading range, Nifty futures finally tried to rally and test the upper resistances. Though the Nifty contracts couldn't surpass the 5775 resistance area on Monday, at the very least, it tested  the previous weeks' high of 5754 and closed at 5741. Intra-day volatility levels  also  lessened on Monday to levels which is normally seen in slow rallies. The surprising fact is that the rally was actually lead by the interest sensitives and the laggards were Reliance, Bharti, Wipro etc.

Nifty futures opened flat and tried to test the previous inside day's high, right in the morning session. Once the previous day's high was taken out, the nifty contracts  tested the previous week's high. A small intra-day correction saw the Nifty futures revisiting the previous day's high in the middle of the trading session. The close was near the high of the week long trading range.

Nifty Futures - Intra-day Chart    

Update for 24th January 2011

 To Be or Not To Be ?

Yeah, " To be or not to be " seems to be the most important question facing the market as well as the market participants in the coming week !  For example : By the end of the previous week, it seemed that the market itself is facing the question - ' To Rally or Not to Rally ' or " To Fall or Not to Fall Further '.  It seems traders and investors are also befuddled by the sideways trading seen in the previous week. Moreover, RBI will also be finding the answer to it's own similar question - ' To Raise Interest Rates or Not to, and if yes, by how much ? ' All these and a midweek trading holiday, just before the expiry of a series in which one side of the market has already suffered heavy losses,  may make any attempt to analyse the complex and unfathomable situation a friutless affair. Therefore, let this author use some straight talk. It's simple !  This author does not have the slightest idea about what the market may do in the coming week.  But, this author has a piece of advice which could help in such situations - Simply stay away from the market till some clarity ( not of any absolute variety but some relative clarity, because markets never provide the absolute variety ! )  arrives !.  Well this is not the opinion of this author alone !. This is the message given by the market itself through  it's sideways movements as seen in the charts. This is a usual process through which markets undergo when expecting some significant price moving news or events.

 Nifty Futures - Intra-day Chart