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Sunday, January 23, 2011

Update for 24th January 2011



 To Be or Not To Be ?

Yeah, " To be or not to be " seems to be the most important question facing the market as well as the market participants in the coming week !  For example : By the end of the previous week, it seemed that the market itself is facing the question - ' To Rally or Not to Rally ' or " To Fall or Not to Fall Further '.  It seems traders and investors are also befuddled by the sideways trading seen in the previous week. Moreover, RBI will also be finding the answer to it's own similar question - ' To Raise Interest Rates or Not to, and if yes, by how much ? ' All these and a midweek trading holiday, just before the expiry of a series in which one side of the market has already suffered heavy losses,  may make any attempt to analyse the complex and unfathomable situation a friutless affair. Therefore, let this author use some straight talk. It's simple !  This author does not have the slightest idea about what the market may do in the coming week.  But, this author has a piece of advice which could help in such situations - Simply stay away from the market till some clarity ( not of any absolute variety but some relative clarity, because markets never provide the absolute variety ! )  arrives !.  Well this is not the opinion of this author alone !. This is the message given by the market itself through  it's sideways movements as seen in the charts. This is a usual process through which markets undergo when expecting some significant price moving news or events.

 Nifty Futures - Intra-day Chart     



Friday, January 21, 2011

Update for 21st January 2011



  
Another Intra-day Bounce, But What Now ?



We used the title " A Tentative Close, But What Now " for the last post, because of the peculiar nature of market close seen on Wednesday. We said that, though the bearish engulfing candle may be indicating an immediate down move, the tentative close might be an indication for a move in either direction. Therefore, traders were advised to be extra careful and alert for fast movements in either direction on Thursday or the following day. Nifty futures opened below the previous day's trading range due to the negative international cues on Thursday. The futures contract tried to recover, but the move failed at around the 5680 mark. Another tentative down move saw the contract almost revisiting the recent swing lows. However, the tentative down move in the morning session also lacked volumes. Therefore, the ensuing recovery  actually  became a frantic short covering rally which traveled around 100 points in just one and a half hours. Nifty futures closed at 5722 after recording a high of 5744.


 Nifty Futures - Intra-day Chart