google.com, pub-7808368332557457, DIRECT, f08c47fec0942fa0 The Ultimate Momentum Signal

Monday, November 29, 2010

Update for 29th November 2010

  Will the Market Hold on to the Support of 100 DMA ?

The Indian stock market is in an intermediate term downtrend. This is a fact because many popular stocks were already  declining even before the start of the present downtrend. The pace and magnitude of the selling and the bunched explosion of negative news were beyond the expectations of most investors. We had indicated in the post dated 13th November that the market may get support at the 100 DMA at around the 5750 levels,  even though we were unaware of any reasons for the continuation of the down trend  at that  time. However, it was stated that the downtrend may continue for some unknown reasons. Last Friday's sell off in the first half even seemed to indicate that there are no reason for the stocks to trend upwards. However, any uptrend can  be confirmed only when the market starts to form higher lows and higher highs in the first step and then, the low stays. 
 

Nifty Futures - Intra-day Chart  


Friday's  intra-day chart of Nifty futures is marked with the important reference levels indicated in the post dated 26th November, 2010. Nifty futures opened between the 5820 and 5860 reference points. The initial test upwards ended just above the 5860 level and the sell off from there, traded through the 5820 level to

Sunday, November 28, 2010

Speculative Bubbles


  Why Asset Price Booms are Bad ?


The Indian stock market investors are supposed to be enjoying one of the best stock rallies for the past two and a half years. The current stock rally had it's origins in the month of  March 2008. The major market indices, S&P CNX Nifty and BSE  Sensex recorded new all time closing highs in the first half of November 2010. However, a cursory look at the stock charts of some popular shares from the Nifty index selected randomly show a very different picture. It is seen that these darlings of the 2008 boom have not done anything in the recent rally to justify the investor's faith in them. Let's examine the charts of  these randomly selected  Nifty companies to see whether any similar patterns can be seen. The period of these charts starts from July 2007 and ends  as on 26th November 2010 covering the peak of  the previous boom and the recovery so far.


RCOM - Weekly Chart July 2007 - Nov 2010