Update for 25th November 2010

Another Scam and Another Sell Off !!!

In the last update it was written that the below normal Put Call Ratio ( PCR ), new call writing and overnight losses in the western market may hinder the Nifty futures' second great escape before the expiry on Thursday. It was also indicated to traders that the reference levels for intra-day real time technical analysis of Nifty futures are at 6000, 5965, 5940, 5875, 5860 and 5820. 

This seems to be a season of scams. And it seems that there is no lack of negative news for the market to sell off day by day. On Tuesday, it was the Korean war clouds. And on Wednesday, it was a turn of corruption and alleged loan scams. There were some unconfirmed news reports over the weekend about some shortages in some of the older annuity schemes of LIC and of some kind of investigation on against investment professionals of LIC. However, it was never felt that the issue might lead to a sudden sell-off of the financials as happened on Wednesday.

Irrespective of the news, a trader following the earlier reference levels could have traded  very profitably on Wednesday. The intra-day market action of Nifty futures is captured by the following chart with the earlier mentioned reference levels.

Nifty Futures - Intra-day Line Chart  

Update for 24th November 2010

Great Escape II, But Will it Last ?

It is said that no trader can control the market and therefore, what a trader can do in preparation of  trading is to decide about what he will do as when market undergoes through or acts in accordance with the various anticipated scenarios. Here is an example which would have  turned in very good profits in Tuesday's trading. Sell Nifty futures if futures falls below the 5940 reference point and stays there. The reader might be curious why this is brought up now. Some selective quotes from the previous update will solve the problem. And here are the quotes :

"In spite of the recovery and a close above the major support of 5940, the fact remains that the market is still in a down trend and the latest close is still in the bear territory. Even though the European markets were trading positively when the Indian markets closed, the western financial stocks and commodities were losing in the overnight trade on the back of increasing fears about the sovereign debt problem and the bail out of the Ireland economy. Therefore, another retest of the support below and even a resumption of the downtrend itself can not be ruled out as of now." "Therefore, traders may watch the market action near and just above the highs of Monday's candle as well as at the support level at 5940 - 5950 on Tuesday, depending upon the market conditions to gain insights on trading." 

The first quote was given as the background information. The second quote was about the two anticipated scenarios of strength and weakness. However the required trade action was not included for want of real time  knowledge of the available market conditions. Let's sum it up ! " Let the market do it's thing ! We are prepared to do our thing ! "

Nifty Futures - Intra-day Line Chart