Update on The Ultimate Momentum Signal - 1st July, 2010

 NAV Rally or Real Momentum ... ?

The Nifty futures opened lower on Wednesday and  traded positively till it reached the last days close of 5268 in the initial hours. Thereafter, it corrected 20 points and rallied to 5299. It again corrected some 30 points to reach 5268. At around 2.40 PM the European markets rallied suddenly on the back of a news release which said the Banks have utilised lesser refinance from the ECB than expected. The Nifty futures too rallied strongly in tandem with the European markets and finally closed at 5319. The market might have been helped by the half yearly  institutional net asset value management too. 

Nifty Futures - Daily Chart

The last hour rally has negated the sell signal and the market is evenly poised at present. The short position ended with a loss of 51 points. The market can still go either way. It can test the highs or restart a correction if the world market weakens further. Whatever the immediate move, the Indian market remains as one of the strongest markets  in the world at present.

World Markets

The rally in the European markets fizzled out by the close and the markets  there closed marginally positive with minor gains. The US markets were trading absolutely flat on the back of disappointing news on the employment front. The US S&P 500 index was trading at 1042 near the multi-month lows at 00 Hrs IST.

Updated Momentum Signal Spreadsheet

The updated spreadsheet showing the Momentum Signal as on the close of  30th June 2010, is given below.

The Momentum Signal has given a value of -30 as on Wednesday, indicating a neutral to negative momentum.

Projected Momentum Signal Close Values

The projected levels of closing values corresponding to the momentum shift / neutrality / continuation as on the close of trading on 1st July, 2010 are given in the table below. The table also include the projected closing values of BSE Sensex corresponding to the momentum shift / neutrality / continuation signals.

 

 

The closing values required for another sell signal has increased and are near to the closing values of Wednesday. All readers of this blog are once again requested to read and understand all the intricacies of trading the Momentum Signal System and the risk factors.

Cheers and Prosperous Investing and Trading !!!  

To access and/or download  the free online Position Limit Calculator click here.

To checkout the five year history of The Momentum Signal Spreadsheet click here.

 

 

© 2010, momentumsignal.blogspot.com All rights reserved.

Disclaimer: No research, information or content contained herein or in the accompanied spreadsheet shall be construed as advice and is offered for information purposes only. We shall not be responsible and disclaim any liability for any loss, liability, damage (whether direct or consequential) or expense of any nature whatsoever which may be suffered by the user or any third party as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to the use of or reliance on any information or service provided. All files/information is provided 'as is' with no warranty or guarantee as to its reliability or accuracy.

Update on The Ultimate Momentum Signal - 30th June, 2010

  The System Signals a Sell ... !

Even though it was expected that the Nifty Futures may test the resistance band, it was not to be ! The test of the resistance band had already happened on Monday itself ! In  the last post it was stated that "all major market indices barring the Indian and the German DAX are trading below their respective 200 day moving averages at present and therefore, the market may fail in the test of previous highs."  On Tuesday the Nifty Futures opened lower at 5322.80 and traded steadily lower  to reach a low of 5240.10 and finally closed  at 5268.50. The futures were supported by the regression channel on Tuesday's trading. However, The Momentum Signal system has already indicated a sell as on Tuesday's trading and therefore, it may break the support on Wednesday's trading. Once the  support line is broken it may also act as the next resistance line.

Nifty Futures - Daily Chart

 

The Stop Loss for the sell signal remains at the previous high of 5388. The next support for the futures are at the 5100 to 5150 range where many daily and weekly moving averages are situated at present. However, a new low in the western markets of US and UK may induce further weakness or even the much expected medium term correction. ( Please see the US S&P 500 chart below ). Even though the Indian markets are one of the strongest in the world, if and when panic sets in, all markets are sold off and the correlation between them even rises to the maximum.

 

World Markets

In Europe the FTSE, CAC and DAX closed with heavy losses of 3.10, 4.01 and 3.33 percents respectvely. The FTSE closed at an eight month low on Tuesday. 

US S&P 500 Index - Daily Chart at 11.00 PM IST

The widely followed US S&P 500 index was trading at six month lows of 1040 at  around 11.00 PM IST as seen in the above chart. The fear Index VIX was trading at 34 levels increasing around 15 % for the day.

Updated Momentum Signal Spreadsheet

The updated spreadsheet showing the Momentum Signal as on the close of  29th June 2010, is given below.

The Momentum Signal  has indicated a sell as on close of the trade on Tuesday. It may also be noted that system had indicated an exit of all long positions as on the close trade on Monday. ( Please see the previous post for details ).

Projected Momentum Signal Close Values

The projected levels of closing values corresponding to the momentum shift / neutrality / continuation as on the close of trading on 30th June, 2010 are given in the table below. The table also include the projected closing values of BSE Sensex corresponding to the momentum shift / neutrality / continuation signals.

  Please click on the table to enlarge. For more info on the above table,  please click here.

 

A close below 5223 may indicate maximum negative momentum for the Nifty futures as on the close of Wednesday's trading. For the corresponding levels of the indices, please  refer to the table above. 

Cheers and Prosperous Investing and Trading !!!  

To access and/or download  the free online Position Limit Calculator click here.

To checkout the five year history of The Momentum Signal Spreadsheet click here.

 

© 2010 momentumsignal.blogspot.com All rights reserved.

Disclaimer: No research, information or content contained herein or in the accompanied spreadsheet shall be construed as advice and is offered for information purposes only. We shall not be responsible and disclaim any liability for any loss, liability, damage (whether direct or consequential) or expense of any nature whatsoever which may be suffered by the user or any third party as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to the use of or reliance on any information or service provided. All files/information is provided 'as is' with no warranty or guarantee as to its reliability or accuracy.