google.com, pub-7808368332557457, DIRECT, f08c47fec0942fa0 The Ultimate Momentum Signal

Thursday, March 18, 2010

Update on The Ultimate Momentum Signal - Update for 19 - 03 - 2010

The Breakout - Day 14

 Another Day of Consolidation.....!
The Nifty futures opened today at 5144 and traded mostly inside the yesterday's range.  It closed at 5255 forming an inside day. Today, the Australian, Indian and Taiwanese markets closed  in  the positive territory, but the Japanese and Hongkong markets closed with negative bias. The European markets have also closed flat or with negative bias. At the time of writing the post, the US markets are also trading flat. 

                     Nifty Futures - Daily Chart

As the technical position of the market has not changed today, the stop loss for long positions remains at 5160. Meanwhile the S&P CNX Nifty index valuations have reached the upper ranges of normal bull markets and therefore traders are advised to adopt a cautious mode. Please also read the
next post for more information on the index valuations.

The Updated Momentum Signal Spreadsheet 

The updated spreadsheet showing the Momentum Signal as on the close of   18th March 2010, is given below.
You can click on the table to enlarge. For more info on the above table,  please click here.

The Momentum Signal has returned the maximum value of +100 for the fourteenth consecutive day indicating the continuation of the uptrend.

 Projected Momentum Signal Close Values

The projected levels of closing values required for momentum shift / neutrality / continuation as on the close  of trading  on 19th March 2010 are given in the table below. The table also include the projected closing values of BSE Sensex required for momentum shift / neutrality / continuation.

 You can click on the table to enlarge. For more info on the above table,  please click here.

Even though the trading system rules recommends a trailing stop loss of 2.5 % from the maximum favorable excursion, it stands reduced to 2.1 % from day before yesterday, due to the long nature of the uptrend and the significant non - participation by some of the Nifty constituents in the current rally.  The  new stop loss point is at 5160.



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Disclaimer: No research, information or content contained herein or in the accompanied spreadsheet shall be construed as advice and is offered for information purposes only. We shall not be responsible and disclaim any liability for any loss, liability, damage (whether direct or consequential) or expense of any nature whatsoever which may be suffered by the user or any third party as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to the use of or reliance on any information or service provided. All files/information is provided 'as is' with no warranty or guarantee as to its reliability or accuracy.

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Update on The Ultimate Momentum Signal - 18th, March 2010

  The Breakout - Day 13

  One More Up Day.....!

Some Trader Thoughts
Trading is a boring job for a system trader. Once a trading system is designed and tested, he just needs to follow the rules. Trading the 'Ultimate  Trading System'  is also a boring job to anyone who needs some constant action and thrills. According to the system rules nothing was needed to be done  today with respect to the long positions in the Nifty Futures, except for the raising of the trailing stop to 5160. ( Today's High 5271 - 2.1% = 5160 ).

It seems that all izz well....!
At the time of writing this edition, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJIA ) was trading  at 10768, which is a new high. S&P 500 and Nasdaq are also trading at newer highs. The US VIX has fallen to a new low of 16.54, indicating investor confidence.  Meanwhile, in  the UK markets, the FTSE also closed at a new high. The German DAX and the Japanese NIKKEI also closed within a percent of their  January 2010 highs. We may also test our January highs barring unforeseen events. It seems that all izz well for the time being.

Nifty Futures - Daily Chart
The Updated Momentum Signal Spreadsheet