Update for 29th April 2011

 A Late Edition of Momentum Signal Trading System Update

• As the author has been busy elsewhere, this edition of Momentum Signal update is a very short one without any commentaries, but with the usual charts and data.

   Nifty Futures - Intra-day Chart

   Nifty Futures  - Daily Chart

Update for 28th April 2011

   U S Fed Remains Dovish, Easy Money Policy to Continue !

• The statement issued after the FOMC meet of the U S Federal Reserve signaled the continuation of the easy money policy for the time being and opined that the rising prices of fuel, food and commodities may not lead to higher inflation in the U S.
• Stock and  commodity  prices may remain buoyant due to continuation of the near zero policy rates by the Federal Reserve.
• Even though a change in the policy stance may occur later on and hamper the asset price inflation, there is no question of it happening in the immediate future and therefore, no undue volatility in the market due to such changes is seen at present.
• However on the home front, RBI may be forced to act tougher against the galloping inflation which is running much ahead of all expectations for such a long time.        

   Nifty Futures - Intra-day Chart

   Nifty Futures  - Daily Chart

Update for 27th April 2011

   Another Long legged Doji Candle ?

• Large cap stocks sold off in tandem with other Asian counterparts in the first half of the trading day on Tuesday.
• However,  the afternoon session saw the Nifty contracts recovering most of the losses of the morning session.
• Tuesday's trading has again lead to the formation of another doji candle, this time a long legged one, indicating indecision by the market participants.
• Momentum Signal has closed at the neutral territory for the second day in succession. 

  Nifty Futures - Intra-day Chart

 Nifty Futures  - Daily Chart 

Update for 26th April 2011

    Nifty Future Reverses from the 5925 - 5950 Resistance ?     

• This edition of Momentum Signal post is limited to an update of the trading system and the usual charts as the author is still not tracking the market full time due to some exigencies.

  Nifty Futures - Intra-day Chart

Nifty Futures  - Daily Chart 

Update for 25th April 2011

   Nifty Futures Test the 5925 - 5950 Resistance, But ?     

• As expected,  Nifty futures tested the 5925 -5950 resistance area on the last trading day. Though Nifty futures traded in the positive territory on Thursday, trading was mostly sideways and in a range bound manner for the whole trading day.
• Therefore, the result of the test was remained unknown even at the close of trading on Thursday.

  Nifty Futures - Intra-day Chart

Nifty Futures  - Daily Chart 

Update for 21st April 2011

  A Test of the 5925 - 5950 Resistance Imminent ?     

• Nifty future has reversed from the first support area of 5700. This may lead to an imminent test of the 5925 - 5950 resistance area. 
• A significant break out above the resistance area may lead to a rally of some 200 to 250 points or even a test of the all time highs in the medium term.
• However, some more sideways trading in the present trading range is also a realistic scenario due to the imminent interest and petro price hikes, corporate results and other uncertainties.
• This edition of the Momentum Signal update is also a shortened one due to some limitations. 

    Nifty Futures - Intra-day Chart

Nifty Futures  - Daily Chart 

Update for 20th April 2011

  Nifty Hangs On to the 100 & 200 DMAs !    

• As indicated in the previous posts, Nifty future has not broken the support of 5700 - 5750 area where the 100 ( 5716 ) and 200 ( 5740 ) day moving average are placed at present.
• Nifty futures may spend some more time trading between the 5700 - 5950 area, provided the above support holds.
• In case of a break of the support , another revisit of the 5550 to 5600 area is feasible.
• This edition of Momentum Signal post is also limited to the very basic charts and trading system updates.

    Nifty Futures - Intra-day Chart

Nifty Futures  - Daily Chart 

Update for 19th April 2011

  Nifty Poised at 200 DMA !    

• This update is limited to just the basic minimum due to some unavoidable exigencies. Please read the previous update for a detailed analysis of the technical position of the market.

    Nifty Futures - Intra-day Chart

   Nifty Futures  - Daily Chart 

Update for 18th April 2011

 Nifty Futures at Cross Roads Again !    

• Last week, in a truncated week of of trading, Nifty futures traded all over the place and finally ended with a loss of some 35 points.
• About two weeks back, this blog had indicated that the preferred immediate market direction would be somewhat flat and Nifty future may spend some time trading in the 5700 to 5950 area before trying to find the next major movement. 
• It was also indicated that the positive momentum in the weekly charts may prevent the market from falling much and the Nifty futures may get support at the 200 DMA at 5730 levels.
• Though the Momentum Signal trading system had indicated sells on last Monday and Friday, the outcome of even the latest sell signal is still subject to the above technical factors.
• However, more of disappointing corporate results and more interest rate hike expectations  may adversely affect the market in the near term. Further fall in the U S Dollar index, however may help commodities and emerging markets on the positive side. 
•  After considering all these factors, the immediate market direction remains a bit hazy at present.   

    Nifty Futures - Intra-day Chart

• Following the disappointing earnings guidance by Infosys,  Nifty futures too sold off on Friday. Some of the pivotal stocks held their ground in the morning session. However, those stocks also joined the sell off when the higher than expected inflation data came out before noon on Friday.

Update for 15th April 2011

 A Short Covering Rally, Infosys Results and After !   

 

•  As this author is on a holiday, this edition of Ultimate Momentum Signal contains only the basics data and charts.

• Traders may note that the previous posts had opined that the underlying positive momentum in the weekly charts may prevent the market from falling much and this may  turn the previous sell signal in to a whipsaw. Therefore, it was advised that some part booking of profits and hedging of short positions, if any, at the first support area 5725 to 5750 would be desirable. 

    Nifty Futures - Intra-day Chart

    Nifty Futures  - Daily Chart 

Update for 13th April 2011

The Mild Correction Continues !   

• As expected, the mild correction which started from the falling trend line continued on Monday. 
• Monday's holiday mode trading has lead to the formation of a so called subtle gap. Whenever the Nifty contracts do not trade at the previous day's close and / or last traded price on the following day, for lack of any other accepted name, this blogger has been calling it as a subtle gap. According to the experience gained, such subtle gaps, especially when formed near the highs after a rally, can sometimes indicate further weakness in the market. 
• However, as the market has already closed downwards for the last five trading trading days, some bounces can also be expected. This is all the more important due to the presence of some positive momentum in the weekly charts.

   Nifty Futures - Intra-day Chart

Update for 11th April 2011

The Mild Correction to Continue ?  

• Though, some of the previous posts were very short, almost every one of them dealt with the resistance offered by the falling trend line obtained by the  joining of  the previous two highs.
• The earlier posts indicated that the resistance for Nifty futures is between 5950 and 6000. 
• No wonder, Nifty contracts slowed down at the resistance and a mild correction has started in the previous two trading days.
• European Central Bank's interest rate action, some hawkish comments on the interest rate front made by a US Fed official, the rising crude oil prices etc may hamper the present rally, at least in the short term. 
• Now the pertinent questions before the traders are :  whether the mild correction will continue or not in the current week, and if yes, which are the  reasonable support levels !  Let's check the various charts to find  a possible answer !

  Nifty Futures - Intra-day Chart

• The intra-day chart of Nifty futures show the way of the mild correction which on at present. Once Nifty futures broke previous two day low of 5880 levels, it remained below the level for the entire day on last Friday.

   Nifty Futures  - Daily Chart 

Update for 8th April 2011

A Mild Correction is On? 

• It seems that the mild correction as envisaged in the yesterday's post is on now. The supports and resistances given in the previous post remain valid and are reproduced below. 
• Major lower support for the Nifty contracts are at the 5700 to 5750 levels.
• Above these levels, minor supports are available at 5800 and 5850.
• Please note our the preferred view for the market is for some more consolidation between the 5700 and 5950 levels in the immediate future.
• Traders and investors may take note of the first raising of interest rates done by the European Central Bank after the big bear market, which may signal the start of the monetary tightening process in the developed economies. It is natural for equities to under perform in a rising interest rate regime. 
• This late update of the Momentum Signal trading system  contains only the basics of the system due to some time constraints. Please bear with the author.   

     Nifty Futures - Intra-day Chart

Update for 7th April 2011

More Consolidation or a Mild Correction ?

• As expected, Nifty futures encountered resistance between 5950 and 6000 and spent time on consolidation yesterday.
• Major lower support for the Nifty contracts are at the 5700 to 5750 levels.
• Above these levels, minor supports are available at 5800 and 5850.
• Please note our the preferred view for the market is for some more consolidation between the 5700 and 5950 levels in the the immediate future.
• This late update of the Momentum Signal trading system  contains only the basics of the system due to some time constraints. Please bear with the author.

     Nifty Futures - Intra-day Chart

Update for 6th April 2011

Markets Takes a Breather, Now What ?

•  This late update of the Momentum Signal trading system  contains only the basics of the system due to some time constraints.The inconvenience is regretted.

     Nifty Futures - Intra-day Chart

  Nifty Futures  - Daily Chart 

Update for 5th April 2011

   Will the Markets Take a Breather Now ?

• Nifty futures continued with it's relentless up move on Monday, though a slight slow down or some more of sideways trading was expected.
• It seems that the market at present is lead by those FIIs who are short term momentum traders. The weakness in the Dollar index is also pushing them to buy non Dollar assets whereby they benefit from the asset price rise as well as the currency appreciation. However, generally speaking, such sudden rallies have not been much beneficial to the market in the longer term, as when the momentum traders ( read FIIs ) start selling, the gains may disappear just like the way it appeared. 
• As the rally has already run vertically and gained so much in such a short time frame, some slow down to the relentless move can be expected now. The rising crude oil prices may act as a break to the fast rally at any time.
• However, as matter of abundant caution, it may be noted that the present rally which came after a long period of sideways trading can travel much higher than the popular expectations.

    Nifty Futures - Intra-day Chart

  Nifty Futures  - Daily Chart 

Update for 4th April 2011

  Congrats to Team India, We are Proud of You ! 

 Shall We Expect a Euphoric Gap Up Open Too ?

• Team India and  it's captain rose to the expectations of every Indian over the weekend to regain the Cricket World Cup for the second time in history. 
• moemtumsignal.blogspot.com too is joining the celebrations by going in for a hastily done theme color change of the blog. Hats off to the men in blue ! 
• Now the question is : Will the Indian stock market too move out from a phase of recent under performance to out performance ? ( This blogger is not talking about the past week's rally but about the under performance which has been there for the past four months or so. )
• It is said that soccer world cup wins are associated with out-performance or better economic conditions in the winning countries, in the short to medium term. Unfortunately, it is not known whether any similar betterment of  economic conditions can be expected after cricket world cup wins.  
• Then the next question is : Shall we at least expect a euphoric gap up open on Monday ? 
• The answer seems to an yes due to the positive closes achieved by most other stock markets on Friday.  However, stock market is not a place where euphoria is beneficial to any one!   

    Nifty Futures - Intra-day Chart

Update for 1st April 2011

  Nifty Futures Trading in a Consolidation Mode

• This update is also published late due to some some unavoidable circumstances. 
• Please note that the present buy signal by the Momentum Signal trading system has lead to a profit of 282 points in the March series Nifty futures.
• As the market has made gains for the past eight trading days, some consolidation move can be expected now.

   Nifty Futures - Intra-day Chart

  Nifty Futures  - Daily Chart