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Monday, June 13, 2011

Update for 13th June 2011



     Nifty Futures in Downtrend ?

Nifty futures broke the minor support of 5480 on Friday. The contract traveled to the next lower (old) reference level of 5450 and then recovered to close around the support area. As the international markets seem to be entering in to an intermediate term downtrend, Nifty also may also lose the recently seen minor resilience. As a first step, it may revisit the lower boundary of the old trading channel. ( Please see the channel in the weekly chart of Nifty index below.)  The next support areas or reference areas are 5325-5350 and 5175-5225. A break of the lower support of old trading channel may also force the markets losing the long term support  leading to a deep correction.

     Nifty Futures - Intra-day Chart   



  Nifty Futures  - Daily Chart 




S&P CNX Nifty Index - Weekly Chart



  Nifty Options Scene   

The June series Nifty Options Put Call ratio ( PCR June series ) deteriorated to 1.22 times on Thursday. The maximum open interest of June series Nifty Put options is placed at the 5400 strike at present. Naturally, this area may act as some support to the market for the time being.


 Nifty Trailing Fundamentals    


The trailing Price Earnings Ratio  ( PE Ratio ), Price to Book Value ( PB Ratio ) and Dividend Yield ( DY Ratio ) of the Nifty Index  were at 20.26, 3.40 and  1.29 respectively as on 10th June 2011.  ( More information and a long term analysis on Nifty historical valuation are available from the "Nifty Fundas" page ).
 
  Latest Ultimate Momentum Signal 


The Momentum Signal has remained in the  neutral territory as on Friday.

Projected Momentum Signal Close Values

The projected levels of Momentum Signal values applicable to various ranges of closing values of the current month Nifty Futures, Nifty Index and the BSE Sensex,  as at the close of next trading day, ie. as on  13th June, 2011, are given in the following table. All readers are requested to take note that the table below is just a ready reckoner for the next day's Momentum Signal values and the figures are not intended to be interpreted as any targets for the Nifty futures or indices shown therein.
 
 
Click on the table above for an enlarged view.


Readers are also requested to go through The Signal, Entries and Exits, Position Limits, Risk Factors, Risk Analysis,  and FAQs pages to gain a reasonable understanding of the trading system. Please do post your  comments and suggestions on how new  posts can be made more useful.



Cheers and Prosperous Investing and Trading !!!


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