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Friday, March 4, 2011

Update for 4th March 2011



  Nifty Futures Poised for a Test of the 200 DMA at 5660 ?

  • Although, Nifty futures closed flat on a close to close basis on Thursday, the contract has retained all the positive momentum at the close.
  • Nifty futures tested the lower supports twice during the trading session on Thursday, once in the morning and the second, in the afternoon session. But both the tests ended above the lower reference level of 5450.
  • Therefore, Nifty futures seemed to be set for a test of the upper resistances. 
  • The next higher resistance above the present swing high of 5598 is the 200 DMA placed at 5660.
  • The next higher resistance above the 200 DMA is around the 5800 levels, where the futures contract and the underlying index, Nifty,  may meet the upper boundary of the long running trading channel.
  • Due to the lack of time, this update is kept short, but with all the usual charts and data. 
    Nifty Futures - Intra-day Chart



     Nifty Futures  - Daily Chart 


 Nifty Options Scene   


The March series Nifty Options Put Call ratio ( PCR )  closed at 1.36 times on  Thursday. ( It seems that the PCR ratio disseminated in the previous post was erroneous due to some bug in the NSE option chain page. )  The India VIX index  closed higher at 22.96, gaining 3.33 %. It seems that a significant quantity of strangles involving the strikes of 4900 and 5900 were bought and sold on Thursday. Apart from this Call open interest increased at the 5600 strike significantly. Some additions to Put OI were seen at the strikes of 5400 and 5500.
 
 
 Nifty Trailing Fundamentals    
  
 
The trailing Price Earnings Ratio  ( PE Ratio ), Price to Book Value ( PB Ratio ) and Dividend Yield ( DY Ratio ) of the Nifty Index  were at 21.20, 3.51 and  1.12 respectively as on  3rd March, 2011.  ( More information and a long term analysis on Nifty historical valuation are available from the "Nifty Fundas" page ). 

 Latest Ultimate Momentum Signal 
 
 
Nifty future, Nifty and Sensex have closed with the Momentum Signal values of +100 on Thursday.
 
Projected Momentum Signal Close Values

The projected levels of Momentum Signal values applicable to various ranges of closing values of the current month Nifty Futures, Nifty Index and the BSE Sensex,  as at the close of next trading day, ie. as on  4th March, 2011, are given in the following table. All readers are requested to take note that the table below is just a ready reckoner for the next day's Momentum Signal values and the figures are not intended to be interpreted as any targets for the Nifty futures or indices shown therein.
 
 
Please click on the table to enlarge. For more info on the above table,  please click here.

Readers are also requested to go through The Signal, Entries and Exits, Position Limits, Risk Factors, Risk Analysis,  and FAQs pages to gain a reasonable understanding of the trading system. Please do post your  comments and suggestions on how new  posts can be made more useful.
 
Cheers and Prosperous Investing and Trading !!!

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