Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Update for 4th January 2011

   A Late Edition of the Momentum Signal Update 

  • As indicated in the previous update, this post is published late, due to some unavoidable exigencies.
  • Even though Nifty futures closed higher on the first day of trading in the new year, the volume and open interest seemed to be unusually low in comparison to similar trading days, raising some doubts about the present uptrend.
  • Rising interest rates and tight liquidity conditions seem to be taking it's toll on the banking sector in today's trade. ( Please note that this possibility was indicated in the one of the previous posts. )
  • As the Nifty future had registered positive closes on the previous four trading days, today's losses can be considered just as a minor correction for the time being. However, this opinion requires revision in accordance with further market action. 

Nifty Futures  - Daily Chart 

As there is no change in the technical position of the market, the following sentence dealing with the important reference points is reproduced from the previous post. "The next higher resistance is at the 6250 level at present. The lower supports are available at the 6090, 6030 and 6000 levels. Therefore, the important reference levels available for intra-day analysis and trading are 6000, 6030, 6090, 6130, 6175, 6250 and 6330."

Nifty Options Scene
The January series Nifty options Put Call ratio decresed slightly to 1.59 as on  3rd January, 2011.

Nifty Trailing Fundamentals     

The trailing Price Earnings Ratio  ( PE Ratio ), Price to Book Value ( PB Ratio ) and Dividend Yield ( DY Ratio ) of the Nifty Index  were at 24.57,  3.88 and  1.01  respectively as on  3rd  January 2011. ( More information and a long term analysis on Nifty historical valuation are available from the "Nifty Fundas" page ). 

Latest Ultimate Momentum Signal

The updated Momentum Signal spreadsheet showing the latest signal values of the current month Nifty future and the Nifty index is given below :

Nifty futures and both the indices, viz. S&P Nifty and BSE Sensex have closed with Momentum Signal values of +100 as on the first day trading of the year 2011.

Projected Momentum Signal Close Values

The projected levels of Momentum Signal values applicable to various ranges of closing values of the current month Nifty Futures, Nifty Index and the BSE Sensex,  as at the close of next trading day, ie. as on  4th January, 2011, are given in the following table. All readers are requested to take note that the table below is just a ready reckoner for the next day's Momentum Signal values and the figures are not intended to be interpreted as any targets for the Nifty futures or indices shown therein.
 Please click on the table to enlarge. For more info on the above table,  please click here.

Readers are requested to go through the Risk Factors, Risk Analysis, Position Limits and FAQs pages to gain a reasonable understanding of the trading system. Please do post your  comments and suggestions on how new  posts can be made more useful.
Cheers and Prosperous Investing and Trading !!!

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