Thursday, November 4, 2010

Update on The Ultimate Momentum Signal - 4th Nov. 2010

   Happy Diwali !!! 

momentumsignal.blogspot.com 
wishes all traders and readers a very happy Diwali 
and very a prosperous New Year !!!!

Since the author is travelling, this update will be limited to the essentials and no market commentary is being provided. The inconvenience to the readers is regretted.

Nifty Futures - Daily Chart


Nifty Fundas
 
The trailing PE multiple of the Nifty index has been quoting above the 25 mark for some time. The 25 PE mark  can almost  be termed as the starting point of the bubble territory.  Even though the multiple quoted just below the 25 mark on some days recently,  PE multiple has again started to quote above the 25 mark.
 
 
 
 The above table shows the latest data related  to Nifty trailing valuation, sourced from the NSE, India website.  The historical  trailing price earning ( PE Ratio ), price to book value ( PB Ratio ) and dividend yield ( DY Ratio ) of the Nifty Index  were at 25.3,  3.85 and 1.01 as on  3rd November 2010. Readers may please note that the periods in which the Nifty index traded above a historical PE Ratio of 25 were limited to just  two occasions in the years 2000 and 2007-08. And both such periods coincided with the highs just before the burst of the then bull markets. ( More information and analysis on Nifty historical valuation is available from the "Nifty Fundas" page of this blog ).


Updated Momentum Signal Spreadsheet

The updated spreadsheet showing the Momentum Signal as at the close of the trading on  3rd  November, 2010 is given below :
 
 

Projected Momentum Signal Close Values


The projected levels Momentum Signal values applicable to various ranges of closing values of the current month Nifty Futures, Nifty Index and the BSE Sensex,  as at the close of next trading day, ie. as on  4th November, 2010, are given in the following table. All readers are requested to take note that the table below is just a ready reckoner for the next day's Momentum Signal values and are in no way any targets for the Nifty futures or indices shown therein.

  Please click on the table to enlarge. For more info on the above table,  please click here.

All readers are requested to read the Risk Factors, Risk Analysis, Position Limits and FAQs pages of this blog to have a reasonable understanding of the system. Please do post your suggestions and comments on how this blog can be made more useful.
 
Cheers and Prosperous Investing and Trading !!!

To access and/or download  the free online Position Limit Calculator click here.

To checkout the five year history of The Momentum Signal Spreadsheet click here


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Disclaimer: No research, information or content contained herein or in the accompanied spreadsheet shall be construed as advice and is offered for information and educational purposes only. We shall not be responsible and disclaim any liability for any loss, liability, damage (whether direct or consequential) or expense of any nature whatsoever which may be suffered by the user or any third party as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to the use of or reliance on any information or service provided. All files/information is provided 'as is' with no warranty or guarantee as to its reliability or accuracy.

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