Sunday, May 30, 2010

Nifty Heavies Revisited .. !

 Nifty Futures

Nifty futures had a roller coaster ride last week. From a high of 5023 on Monday,  it recorded a low of 4786 on Tuesday. It gained on the last three days of the week to reach a high of 5055 on Friday. It closed at 5037 for the week. As the trading has been entirely based on international cues, any prediction has become useless. Therefore, lets try to understand what the market has done and why. 

The Indian market has been able to reasonably withstand the the onslaught of the bears recently unlike in the past. In the past, our market used to be more volatile than it's western counterparts. The reason for this positioning is none other than the better macro economic growth story offered by the Indian economy. However, any further deterioration of the  European soveriegn debt debacle may still affect our markets. 

Nifty Weekly & Weekly Moving Averages Chart  

The Nifty future is supported by the 50 WMA at 4918. The Nifty futures is still trading below its short term  weekly moving averages. The 5, 10 and 20 week moving averages are at 5065, 5186 and 5092 respectively. These short term averages may act as resistances.

Nifty Heavy Weights

The top ten members of the S&P Nifty index and their prices and various daily moving averages are given in the table below.    


The most important Nifty constituent, Reliance is still trading  sideways even after the favourable court verdict. The stock is still trading very near to it's 200 DMA. The trading range remains confined to the 975 to 1100 range. 


Even though Infosys stock has been correcting from the April highs, there has not been any damage to it's charts. it remains one of the strong pivotals.


After the somewhat disappointing results announced by the ICICI Bank, the stock has corrected and the out-performance has been lost. The stock is trading around the 200 DMA at 865.

Larsen & Tubro

After the declaration of the better than expected results, the LT stock has regained performance. It has started  showing higher strength  in the weak market. The stock is trading above it's short and  long term moving averages.


ITC declared good results and has broken out of it's consolidating pattern. ITC is one of the rare stocks which is trading at a new high at present. The stock may be bought on correction at around it's breakout level of just above the 270 level. The stock is trading above it's major moving averages.


HDFC stock has stood without much damage in the present correction. This stock is also trading above it's major moving averages.


HDFC Bank has been one of the out-performers which corrected recently. It reached it's previous high area of 1800 - 1830 area and has traded upwards. However, the stock is still trading below it's 50 DMA at 1918.


SBI stock has withstood the correction even after declaring below the expectations results. May be the sovereign backing  of the bank is helping it in these uncertain times. 


The ONGC stock which has been on a correction mode for some time has been the new surprise entry to the top ten heavy weights. The natural gas price hike by the government has been the reason for the stock's strength. However, the rally may strengthen only after it closes steadily above it's 200 DMA at 1135.


TCS stock has corrected and taken support at the 200 DMA at 693. It may have resistances at the 100 and 50 DMAs at 770 - 780 levels. These moving averages acted as it's support earlier.

Cheers and Prosperous Investing !!!

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