Thursday, April 8, 2010

Update on The Ultimate Momentum Signal - 9th April, 2010

 The Greek Tragedy, Act I Over, But Is There an Act II ...!

This blog was reporting about the increasing Greek bond spreads and the increased risk perceptions of international investors in the past two posts. On Thursday the Act I of the ongoing Greek tragedy was enacted in the markets. The Futures opened lower than the previous day's last trade and could not trade higher even after many attempts. Finally, the markets traded lower and closed at 5293 with significant losses. Meanwhile,  stocks, Euro  and commodities except gold fell in Europe. The Indian Rupee was trading strongly, based  on speculations about a possible Yuan appreciation.  The formation of two back to back doji candles and a possible heating up of the sovereign debt problems  were indicating the possibility of the latest sell off. The question now is whether there is an Act II of the  tragedy tomorrow or later on ... !    

Nifty Futures - Daily Chart

The next direction of the Nifty future remains unclear as of now.  Sometimes, strong rallies which has been running for significantly long times won't die by a  sell off  lasting for one or two days. It may try to recover from the sell off. 

The Updated Momentum Signal Spreadsheet

The updated spreadsheet showing the Momentum Signal as on the close of  8th April 2010, is given below.

The Momentum Signal has closed in the neutral territory as on the closing of trade on 8th April, 2010 thereby indicating the exit of long positions.

Projected Momentum Signal Close Values

The projected levels of closing values corresponding to momentum shift / neutrality / continuation as on the close of trading on 9th April, 2010 are given in the table below. The table also include the projected closing values of BSE Sensex corresponding to momentum shift / neutrality / continuation.

 Please click on the table to enlarge. For more info on the above table,  please click here.

The closing values required for the continuation of the uptrend have moved upwards.The triggers for a downtrend have also moved upward and are very near to last traded prices of Thursday.

Cheers and Prosperous Investing and Trading !!! 

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