Thursday, April 29, 2010

Update on The Ultimate Momentum Signal - 30th April, 2010

 The Greek Tragedy - Act II Over...? 

The Nifty Futures opened 10 points higher at 5233.30 and traded in a very narrow range of 32 points on the derivative settlement day on Thursday. The Current month futures closed at the top end of the range at 5254. The May futures were quoting at a discount of 8 to 10 points, indicating higher quantity of short positions being carried forward.  The existing short positions ended up in marginal losses.

Nifty Futures - Daily Chart    

The next resistance for the futures is at the lower end of the Wednesday's gap at 5277. Above that, the low of Tuesday, that is 5300 may also act as a resistance being the top end of the gap. Other resistance lines can be seen on the above chart.

World Markets 

Expecting a fast agreement between the EU and  IMF for a temporary solution to the Greek debt problem , the European markets closed in the green on Thursday. At the time of compiling this post ( 10.30 PM, IST ), the US markets were rallying on the news of higher corporate profitability and the fall in the jobless claim numbers. The S&P 500 index was trading above it's 15 DMA and the CBOE VIX has fallen to the 18 to 18.5 range.

  US S&P 500 Index & CBOE VIX Daily Chart

The Updated Momentum Signal Spreadsheet

The updated spreadsheet showing the Momentum Signal as on the close of  29th April 2010, is given below.

The Momentum Signal has closed in the sell territory for the second day.

Projected Momentum Signal Close Values

The projected levels of closing values corresponding to the momentum shift / neutrality / continuation as on the close of trading on 30th April, 2010 are given in the table below. The table also include the projected closing values of BSE Sensex corresponding to the momentum shift / neutrality / continuation signals.
You can click on the table to enlarge. For more info on the above table,  please click here.
The closing values required for the resumption of the uptrend and the closing values for the continuation of the downtrend have remained almost static. As the US markets were rallying, the Indian markets may recover further to test the resistances mentioned in the earlier part of the post. Since any closing value above 5265 may turn the signal neutral, the present sell signal may  turn in to a whipsaw.

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Cheers and Prosperous Investing and Trading!!! 

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