Monday, April 12, 2010

Update on The Ultimate Momentum Signal - 13h April, 2010

  Most Problems Solved, But the Earnings Season Arrives....!
  • The Euro finance ministers decided to help Greece by offering as much as 30 billion euros ($41 billion) in loans at below-market interest rates, with another 15 billion euros from the International Monetary Fund.
  • The SEBI - IRDA tussle has been contained for the time being. The truce was arrived by the intervention of the finance ministry which reportedly restores the status before the new SEBI order banning the ULIPs.
  • The US markets are still moving up slowly and were trading at new highs at the time of this post. The US CBOE VIX ( Volatility Index ) was trading at a new thirty month low.
  • Infosys  kick starts the earnings season on 13the April, 2010.
  • Meanwhile the markets traded with neutral to a downward bias leading to an inside day on 12th April, 2010.
Nifty Futures - Daily Chart 

The technical position of the market remained almost the same as before. Major selling can be expected only below 3290 levels.

The Updated Momentum Signal Spreadsheet

The updated spreadsheet showing the Momentum Signal as on the close of  12th April 2010, is given below.

The Momentum Signal has returned a mild negative momentum ( neutral ) after a long time of more than a month.

Projected Momentum Signal Close Values

The projected levels of closing values corresponding to momentum shift / neutrality / continuation as on the close of trading on 12th April, 2010 are given in the table below. The table also include the projected closing values of BSE Sensex corresponding to momentum shift / neutrality / continuation.

Please click on the table to enlarge. For more info on the above table,  please click here.

The closing values required for the continuation of the uptrend have remained static. The triggers for a downtrend have moved upward and are very near to the last closing prices. Readers of this blog may please note that any momentum indicator may generate  many whipsaws in the markets wherein the long slow moving rallies may take place. Accordingly, the Ultimate Momentum Signal is also susceptible to whipsaws if the present condition continues. However, the third method of entry may give better returns at such times.
Cheers and Prosperous Investing and Trading !!! 

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Anonymous said...

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momentumsignal said...

Thank you for your kind words.