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Thursday, April 29, 2010

Update on The Ultimate Momentum Signal - 30th April, 2010

 The Greek Tragedy - Act II Over...? 

The Nifty Futures opened 10 points higher at 5233.30 and traded in a very narrow range of 32 points on the derivative settlement day on Thursday. The Current month futures closed at the top end of the range at 5254. The May futures were quoting at a discount of 8 to 10 points, indicating higher quantity of short positions being carried forward.  The existing short positions ended up in marginal losses.

Nifty Futures - Daily Chart    


The next resistance for the futures is at the lower end of the Wednesday's gap at 5277. Above that, the low of Tuesday, that is 5300 may also act as a resistance being the top end of the gap. Other resistance lines can be seen on the above chart.

World Markets 

Expecting a fast agreement between the EU and  IMF for a temporary solution to the Greek debt problem , the European markets closed in the green on Thursday. At the time of compiling this post ( 10.30 PM, IST ), the US markets were rallying on the news of higher corporate profitability and the fall in the jobless claim numbers. The S&P 500 index was trading above it's 15 DMA and the CBOE VIX has fallen to the 18 to 18.5 range.

  US S&P 500 Index & CBOE VIX Daily Chart


The Updated Momentum Signal Spreadsheet

The updated spreadsheet showing the Momentum Signal as on the close of  29th April 2010, is given below.




The Momentum Signal has closed in the sell territory for the second day.

Projected Momentum Signal Close Values

The projected levels of closing values corresponding to the momentum shift / neutrality / continuation as on the close of trading on 30th April, 2010 are given in the table below. The table also include the projected closing values of BSE Sensex corresponding to the momentum shift / neutrality / continuation signals.
You can click on the table to enlarge. For more info on the above table,  please click here.
 
The closing values required for the resumption of the uptrend and the closing values for the continuation of the downtrend have remained almost static. As the US markets were rallying, the Indian markets may recover further to test the resistances mentioned in the earlier part of the post. Since any closing value above 5265 may turn the signal neutral, the present sell signal may  turn in to a whipsaw.

Please do write in your suggestions and comments about this blog.


Cheers and Prosperous Investing and Trading!!! 


 
© 2010 momentumsignal.blogspot.com All rights reserved.

Disclaimer: No research, information or content contained herein or in the accompanied spreadsheet shall be construed as advice and is offered for information purposes only. We shall not be responsible and disclaim any liability for any loss, liability, damage (whether direct or consequential) or expense of any nature whatsoever which may be suffered by the user or any third party as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to the use of or reliance on any information or service provided. All files/information is provided 'as is' with no warranty or guarantee as to its reliability or accuracy.

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Update on The Ultimate Momentum Signal - 29th April, 2010


 The Greek Tragedy - Act II and a Sell Signal... !

Following the turbulence in the world markets due to the ongoing sovereign debt crisis, the Nifty Futures opened lower at 5252 with a gap and reached a low of 5247 at the opening itself on Wednesday.  Thereafter, it traded upwards and reached a high of 5277. However, it encountered selling from around 1.00 PM and reached a low of 5198 and finally closed at 5224. The Momentum Signal has indicated a sell as on the closing of Wednesday's trade. 

Nifty Futures - Daily Chart       


The present sell signal has come as a consequence of sudden news based fall and therefore, the market may try to recover. In case the markets goes in to a downtrend, the futures may get supports at the longer term daily moving averages ( DMAs ). The 50, 100 and 200 DMAs of the Futures are placed at 5156, 5113 and 4920 respectively.
Nifty Futures - Daily Moving Averages Chart   

 

The most worrying factor about the S&P Nifty index is the weakness in the market heavyweight Reliance stock. Reliance lead the Wednesday's fall in the index. It fell 4 % and closed below even it's 200 DMA placed at 1037. ( See the chart below  ).

Reliance Daily Chart & Moving Averages 



The Updated Momentum Signal Spreadsheet

The updated spreadsheet showing the Momentum Signal as on the close of  28th April 2010, is given below.


The Momentum Signal has indicated a sell as on closing on Wednesday. 

Projected Momentum Signal Close Values

The projected levels of closing values corresponding to the momentum shift / neutrality / continuation as on the close of trading on 29th April, 2010 are given in the table below. The table also include the projected closing values of BSE Sensex corresponding to the momentum shift / neutrality / continuation signals.

 You can click on the table to enlarge. For more info on the above table,  please click here.
 
The closing values required for the resumption of the uptrend have increased significantly and the closing values for the continuation of the downtrend has also moved upwards.


Please do write in your suggestions and comments about this blog.

 
Cheers and Prosperous Investing and Trading!!!  



© 2010 momentumsignal.blogspot.com All rights reserved.

Disclaimer: No research, information or content contained herein or in the accompanied spreadsheet shall be construed as advice and is offered for information purposes only. We shall not be responsible and disclaim any liability for any loss, liability, damage (whether direct or consequential) or expense of any nature whatsoever which may be suffered by the user or any third party as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to the use of or reliance on any information or service provided. All files/information is provided 'as is' with no warranty or guarantee as to its reliability or accuracy.

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Update on The Ultimate Momentum Signal - 28th April, 2010


 The Futures Ends Lower In The Neutral Territory...!
The Greek Tragedy - Act II ... ? 

The Nifty Futures opened lower at 5304.80 following the weak cues from the Asian markets and traded higher in the initial hours on Tuesday. It achieved a high of 5333.90 and thereafter traded lower to close at 5307.60. This possibility of a lower closing in the neutral territory was pointed out in the last post. Tuesday's range was also confined to a meager 35 points. The Futures are still trading in the new upward moving regression channel. Please see the support  and resistance lines from the chart below. Even though this blog was expecting a higher closing on Thursday's derivative expiry, that possibility may be negated by the new developments in the sovereign  the debt crisis. We may expect a lower open for the markets on Wednesday.

Nifty Futures - Daily Chart       

  
World Markets     

Even though the Asian markets traded significantly higher on Monday, barring the Nikkei index of Japan, most Asian indices closed with significant losses on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the fears over the sovereign debt crisis has significantly increased in Europe following the cut in the credit rating of Greece to junk status by the Standard and Poors rating agency. The Greek bond spreads have hit new highs indicating higher risk perception by the investors. (The spread or Risk Premium is the difference in the interest yield between two bonds of similar maturity ). Credit default swap rate for Greek debts has also hit new highs. Raising the risk of a contagion, the risk premium on Portuguese bonds also rose to more than double the past year’s average this month. Portugal’s credit default swaps show investors rank its debt as the world’s eighth-riskiest, worse than for Lebanon and Guatemala. As a consequence the FTSE ( -2.6% ) , CAC  ( -3.82 % ) and DAX (  -2.7 % ) closed  with significant losses in Europe.

European Indices - FTSE  & DAX Daily Charts      


The US markets were also trading with losses following the rating cut by the S&P rating agency  even though housing prices have recorded an uptick for the first time in the last three years.  At the time of writing this post ( 10.30 PM IST ) the VIX index showing the implied volatility of  S&P 500 options has also spiked ( see the chart below ) indicating higher risk perception by the investors.

US Markets S & P 500 Index and CBOE VIX Index     

 

The Updated Momentum Signal Spreadsheet

The updated spreadsheet showing the Momentum Signal as on the close of  27th April 2010, is given below.
  

 The Nifty Futures and the Index closed in the neutral area for the second trading day.

Projected Momentum Signal Close Values

The projected levels of closing values corresponding to the momentum shift / neutrality / continuation as on the close of trading on 28th April, 2010 are given in the table below. The table also include the projected closing values of BSE Sensex corresponding to the momentum shift / neutrality / continuation signals.


 You can click on the table to enlarge. For more info on the above table,  please click here.
 
The closing values required for the resumption of the uptrend have decreased significantly and the trigger for a downtrend has moved upwards.


Please do write in your suggestions and comments about this blog.

Cheers and Prosperous Investing and Trading!!!  




© 2010 momentumsignal.blogspot.com All rights reserved.

Disclaimer: No research, information or content contained herein or in the accompanied spreadsheet shall be construed as advice and is offered for information purposes only. We shall not be responsible and disclaim any liability for any loss, liability, damage (whether direct or consequential) or expense of any nature whatsoever which may be suffered by the user or any third party as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to the use of or reliance on any information or service provided. All files/information is provided 'as is' with no warranty or guarantee as to its reliability or accuracy.

Monday, April 26, 2010

Update on The Ultimate Momentum Signal - 27th April, 2010

   
The Futures Ends Higher, But In The Neutral Territory...!

Following the strong cues from the Asian markets, the Nifty futures opened above the Thursday's  high of 5342 and traded lower from thereon.  Even though the European markets were also trading higher, the futures traded lower to test last  Friday's closing price of 5313  and finally closed at 5320. The future has closed  in the neutral territory indicating exit of the long position as per the buy signal  indicated on last Friday. This possibility was also pointed out in the last post.
Monday's trade was confined to a small range of 35 points. In this process, the future has closed higher for the past five trading sessions and therefore we may expect some lower closings also in the next trading days. Barring unforeseen circumstances, the derivative expiry on Thursday could be at the top end of the recent trading range for the simple reason that the last week's sell off seems to have failed.

Nifty Futures - Daily Chart         


The Asian markets seem to have started to trade higher. The European markets have also closed higher at the time of wring this post. The US markets were trading with positive to neutral bias at 11.15 PM IST. 

The Updated Momentum Signal Spreadsheet

The updated spreadsheet showing the Momentum Signal as on the close of  26th April 2010, is given below.


 The Momentum Signal has closed in the neutral area.


Projected Momentum Signal Close Values

The projected levels of closing values corresponding to momentum shift / neutrality / continuation as on the close of trading on 27th April, 2010 are given in the table below. The table also include the projected closing values of BSE Sensex corresponding to momentum shift / neutrality / continuation.

   Please click on the table to enlarge. For more info on the above table,  please click here.

As you can see from the table above, the minimum closing  values required for the  triggering of  a buy have  moved downward.  The triggers for the resumption of the downtrend has also increased.

Cheers and Prosperous Investing and Trading !!! 
 

© 2010 momentumsignal.blogspot.com All rights reserved.

Disclaimer: No research, information or content contained herein or in the accompanied spreadsheet shall be construed as advice and is offered for information purposes only. We shall not be responsible and disclaim any liability for any loss, liability, damage (whether direct or consequential) or expense of any nature whatsoever which may be suffered by the user or any third party as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to the use of or reliance on any information or service provided. All files/information is provided 'as is' with no warranty or guarantee as to its reliability or accuracy.

Sunday, April 25, 2010

Update on The Ultimate Momentum Signal - 26th April, 2010


  Another Buy Signal, But Sensex Drags....! 

The Nifty Futures opened with some positive bias on last Friday and closed near the day's high at 5313. A buy signal has been flashed by The Ultimate Momentum Signal. However, The Signal has not indicated a buy for the BSE Sensex  leaving some doubts about the buy signal.  Moreover, the futures have closed higher for the last four days thereby leaving some chances of lower closings in the next two days.  The present buy signal has been triggered mainly by the strength of the SBI stock and other banking counters after the less than expected tightening by the RBI and some news on  the  re-capitalisation of some government owned banks. 

Nifty Futures - Daily Chart   


The Stop loss point for all Nifty futures long positions may be fixed at the Thursday's low at 5217.

Meanwhile, Reliance has come out with it's results and the same has been somewhat below the expectations of the analysts. The good news is that the gross refining margins ( GRMs ) may increase from here, especially after the crash last year. Reliance stock has been a drag on the market for the last ten months or so as it has been trading sideways in a range between 900 to 1200.  Recently the stock has been trading in a much narrower range between 975 and 1150.  (See the charts below ).

Reliance - Daily Chart  


As seen from the chart below, the stock is presently trading between it's long term moving averages and the short term moving averages. It's 200, 100 and 50 day moving averages are placed at 1036, 1047 and 1055 respectively. The stock has support from these averages at present. It's 20, 10 and 5 day moving averages are placed at 1096, 1089 and 1068 respectively. Any further rally by the index may require some more help from the market heavy weight Reliance.

Reliance - Daily Moving Averages Chart  

  
In world market news, the Dow index has closed higher for the eighth week. The Asian markets have been mostly trading downwards last week. European markets have also seen some sell offs last week as a consequence  to the continuing sovereign debt problems. However they traded higher last Friday on the strength of the US markets. As the US market is the only market which has not shown any weakness in the immediate past, barring the one day sell off related to the Goldman Sachs news  any weakness in the US markets may affect other markets more.

 
The Updated Momentum Signal Spreadsheet

The updated spreadsheet showing the Momentum Signal as on the close of  23rd April 2010, is given below.


The Momentum Signal has indicated a buy as on 23rd April, 2010.

Projected Momentum Signal Close Values

The projected levels of closing values corresponding to momentum shift / neutrality / continuation as on the close of trading on 26th April, 2010 are given in the table below. The table also include the projected closing values of BSE Sensex corresponding to momentum shift / neutrality / continuation.

 

    Please click on the table to enlarge. For more info on the above table,  please click here.

As you can see from the table above, the minimum closing  values required for the continuation of the uptrend has increased and therefore the the present buy signal may turn in to whipsaw.The triggers for the resumption of the downtrend has also decreased significantly.

Cheers and Prosperous Investing and Trading !!! 
 


© 2010 momentumsignal.blogspot.com All rights reserved.

Disclaimer: No research, information or content contained herein or in the accompanied spreadsheet shall be construed as advice and is offered for information purposes only. We shall not be responsible and disclaim any liability for any loss, liability, damage (whether direct or consequential) or expense of any nature whatsoever which may be suffered by the user or any third party as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to the use of or reliance on any information or service provided. All files/information is provided 'as is' with no warranty or guarantee as to its reliability or accuracy.

Thursday, April 22, 2010

Update on The Ultimate Momentum Signal - 23rd April, 2010


 A Roller Coaster Day .....! 

The Nifty Futures opened near the day's low at 5220 and rallied till around 2.30 PM to record a high of 5341.70. There after it sold off 100 points and finally closed at 5257.55, completing the roller coaster ride for the day.  The trailing stop at 5270 was hit during the early part of the day and left a profit of 60 points on the short futures position. The expected short covering rally has been enacted and the next direction of the futures remains uncertain.

  Nifty Futures - Daily Chart  




The European stock indices sold off today too by around a percentage each on increasing fears about widening deficits and further weakening of Greek bonds. At the time of writing this post,  the Wall Street has been slowly trading upwards after opening with significant losses following President Obama's call to the Street to work with him for enacting common sense rules.


The Updated Momentum Signal Spreadsheet

The updated spreadsheet showing the Momentum Signal as on the close of  22nd April 2010, is given below.

The Momentum Signal remained in the sell territory for the seventh day with  values of -80 for the futures and the index.

Projected Momentum Signal Close Values

The projected levels of closing values corresponding to momentum shift / neutrality / continuation as on the close of trading on 23rd April, 2010 are given in the table below. The table also include the projected closing values of BSE Sensex corresponding to momentum shift / neutrality / continuation.

 

   Please click on the table to enlarge. For more info on the above table,  please click here.

The triggers for the end of the downtrend have moved downwards and are placed at the yesterday's closing levels. The minimum values required for the resumption of the uptrend have  moved downwards. Although re-entries are tricky and the risk-reward returns are not very favorably placed, the re-entry level as per  the system is at 5229.50 ( High 5341.7 - 2.1 % ). However a re-entry is not advised because of the above reasons.

 
Cheers and Prosperous Investing and Trading !!! 
 


© 2010 momentumsignal.blogspot.com All rights reserved.


Disclaimer: No research, information or content contained herein or in the accompanied spreadsheet shall be construed as advice and is offered for information purposes only. We shall not be responsible and disclaim any liability for any loss, liability, damage (whether direct or consequential) or expense of any nature whatsoever which may be suffered by the user or any third party as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to the use of or reliance on any information or service provided. All files/information is provided 'as is' with no warranty or guarantee as to its reliability or accuracy.

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Update on The Ultimate Momentum Signal - 22nd April, 2010

  Another Sideways Day and a Doji Candle ....!  

The Nifty futures again opened with positive bias on Wednesday and traded upwards till it reached a  high which was beyond the yesterday's selling area.  It reached  a high of 5265 which was very near to the trailing stop of 5270.  Unable to trade higher with no clear international cues, the futures traded down to reach a low of 5230.1 and finally closed at 5241. In the  process it produced a doji candle which indicates indecision by the market players about the future direction of the market. The technical position of the market has not changed in  Wednesday's trading. The trailing stop remains at 5270.

The European indices of FTSE and CAC closed lower by around 1 % after the new IMF proposal for a new 'bank tax' aimed at safeguarding against future rescue packages of financial institutions. Commodity stocks also traded lower. The US markets were trading mostly sideways at the time of this post. ( 11.30 PM IST ) 

  Nifty Futures - Daily Chart        



The Updated Momentum Signal Spreadsheet


The updated spreadsheet showing the Momentum Signal as on the close of  21st April 2010, is given below.


The Momentum Signal remained in the sell territory for the sixth day with  values of -100 for the futures and the index.

Projected Momentum Signal Close Values

The projected levels of closing values corresponding to momentum shift / neutrality / continuation as on the close of trading on 22nd April, 2010 are given in the table below. The table also include the projected closing values of BSE Sensex corresponding to momentum shift / neutrality / continuation.

  Please click on the table to enlarge. For more info on the above table,  please click here.

The triggers for the end of the downtrend have moved downwards and are placed at the trailing stop levels. The minimum values required for the resumption of the uptrend have  remained static.

 The trailing stop is at the 5270 level and is to be strictly observed. 

Cheers and Prosperous Investing and Trading !!! 
 

 © 2010 momentumsignal.blogspot.com All rights reserved.


Disclaimer: No research, information or content contained herein or in the accompanied spreadsheet shall be construed as advice and is offered for information purposes only. We shall not be responsible and disclaim any liability for any loss, liability, damage (whether direct or consequential) or expense of any nature whatsoever which may be suffered by the user or any third party as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to the use of or reliance on any information or service provided. All files/information is provided 'as is' with no warranty or guarantee as to its reliability or accuracy.

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Update on The Ultimate Momentum Signal - 21st April, 2010


  The Western Indices Are Not Selling Off ....!  

The Nifty futures opened with positive bias on Tuesday and traded sideways till the policy announcement by the RBI. The lower than expected hikes in the interest rate and the reserve ratios helped it to achieve the high of 5255.50. Some persistent selling was seen at the highs at 5255. Unable to trade higher the futures traded down to reach a low 5208, equivalent to the previous closing and finally closed at 5232. The futures have filled the gap on Monday and therefore, the downward target mentioned in the previous post is no longer valid now.

The implied volatility on the Nifty options seemed to be diminishing on Tuesday. This indicated lack of risk perception by the traders. The trailing stop is presently placed at 5270 level. ( Low 5162+2.1 % )

 Nifty Futures - Daily Chart       


Meanwhile the European markets have rallied and closed near their highs on Tuesday negating the one day sell off following the Goldman Sachs news. At the time of writing this post ( 10.30  PM IST ) the US markets were also trading higher. The S&P 500 index has not yet broken down from the upward moving regression channel. The CBOE VIX index has also gone down to the pre GS news levels.

US S & P 500 Index and CBOE VIX - Daily Charts


 
The Updated Momentum Signal Spreadsheet


The updated spreadsheet showing the Momentum Signal as on the close of  20th April 2010, is given below.


 

The Momentum Signal remained in the sell territory for the fifth day with  values of -100 for the futures and the index.

Projected Momentum Signal Close Values

The projected levels of closing values corresponding to momentum shift / neutrality / continuation as on the close of trading on 21st April, 2010 are given in the table below. The table also include the projected closing values of BSE Sensex corresponding to momentum shift / neutrality / continuation.

 

  Please click on the table to enlarge. For more info on the above table,  please click here.

The triggers for the end of the downtrend have moved downwards. The values required for the resumption of the uptrend have also moved significantly downwards. 

As the western markets are not seen joining the short term downtrend, the present downtrend may reverse in the Indian market. This raises the chance of fast covering rally. The trailing stop is at the 5270 level and is to be strictly observed. 

Cheers and Prosperous Investing and Trading !!! 
 
 

© 2010 momentumsignal.blogspot.com All rights reserved.


Disclaimer: No research, information or content contained herein or in the accompanied spreadsheet shall be construed as advice and is offered for information purposes only. We shall not be responsible and disclaim any liability for any loss, liability, damage (whether direct or consequential) or expense of any nature whatsoever which may be suffered by the user or any third party as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to the use of or reliance on any information or service provided. All files/information is provided 'as is' with no warranty or guarantee as to its reliability or accuracy.

Monday, April 19, 2010

Update on The Ultimate Momentum Signal - 20th April, 2010

  
Asian Equities Sold Off, But What About The Western Indices ..? 

The Nifty Futures opened at 5200 with a gap on Monday and it sold off in the morning session to reach a low of 5162. It rallied by the time the European markets opened and recorded the day's high of 5226. Please note that this blog had indicated the chances of some intraday spikes in the last post. The futures sold off from the highs and finally closed at 5204 recording a doji candle which  indicates indecision. It also left some of the opening gap unfilled. Today's gap of 20 points may indicate a downside target of 5073 which coincides with the 50 and 100 DMAs presently placed at 5080 - 5090 range. This target will be applicable only if the gap is not filled in the next few trading days. Since the futures have closed downward for the past five sessions an upward closing and the filling of the gap can happen at any time. ( This blog do not favour targets because of the difficulties in the prediction and the effects of unforeseen factors on the markets. )

The immediate next direction of the market remains a bit dicey because of three factors. First is the five downward closings already happened. The second factor is the effect of the RBI credit policy due to be announced during the trading hours on Tuesday. A 50 basis point hike in the CRR and 25 basis point hikes in the REPO and Reverse REPO rates seems to the consensus expectations at present. Any policy announcement which has been properly expected does not ordinarily move the markets. The unexpected moves the markets more.. !  The third factor is the effect of western markets.

 Nifty Futures - Daily Chart       




The Updated Momentum Signal Spreadsheet


The updated spreadsheet showing the Momentum Signal as on the close of  19th April 2010, is given below.


The Momentum Signal remained in the sell territory for the fourth day with  values of -100 for the futures and the index.

Projected Momentum Signal Close Values

The projected levels of closing values corresponding to momentum shift / neutrality / continuation as on the close of trading on 20th April, 2010 are given in the table below. The table also include the projected closing values of BSE Sensex corresponding to momentum shift / neutrality / continuation.

 Please click on the table to enlarge. For more info on the above table,  please click here.

The triggers for the end of the downtrend have moved upwards. The values required for the resumption of the uptrend have also moved significantly upwards.

As the futures have closed lower for the past five trading days and  because  of the news flow, traders may expect a volatile session on Tuesday.


Cheers and Prosperous Investing and Trading !!! 
 


© 2010 momentumsignal.blogspot.com All rights reserved.


Disclaimer: No research, information or content contained herein or in the accompanied spreadsheet shall be construed as advice and is offered for information purposes only. We shall not be responsible and disclaim any liability for any loss, liability, damage (whether direct or consequential) or expense of any nature whatsoever which may be suffered by the user or any third party as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to the use of or reliance on any information or service provided. All files/information is provided 'as is' with no warranty or guarantee as to its reliability or accuracy.

Sunday, April 18, 2010

Update on The Ultimate Momentum Signal - 19th April, 2010

 Are Equity Markets Poised for an Intermediate Downtrend...?

Although the Ultimate Momentum Signal had indicated a sell on 13th April, 2010, this blogger had expressed some apprehensions about the sell signal for the reason that none of the major world indices were showing any weakness at that time. Now it seems that other markets may join the downtrend...!
  • During the weekend the Chinese central bank raised the down payment ratios for all property loans to cool down the property market.
  • US jobless claims rose unexpectedly.
  • The US SEC pressed civil fraud charges on the Wall Street's 'gold plated' bank Goldman Sachs, in connection with an underwriting of semi synthetic CDOs consisting of dubious mortgages.
  • Following the above news, equities and commodities sold off on last Friday.
  • Some analysts are opining that China is having an asset price bubble and it may burst affecting India too.  
  • The Nifty index is reversing from an area where it reached the top end of historical valuations as on 6th and 7th April, 2010.  (Click here to check out the post dated 6th April.)
  • The RBI monetary policy on 20th April may contain some interest rate hikes as inflation is almost at the double digits figure.
  • However, the futures have closed lower for the past four trading days and it may still  show some tendency for intraday spikes as happened on the last trading day.
 Nifty Futures - Daily Chart


The resistance still remains at the previous levels indicated earlier at 5305 to 5310 range.


  Nifty Futures - Daily Moving Averages Chart


In case  the present sell off remains persistent, the futures may get supports at the range between 5085 to 5100 where the 50 and 100 day moving averages placed. The lower support may be around the 200 DMA placed at 4880 to 4900 range. 

US S&P 500 - Daily Chart and CBOE VIX


As seen from the chart of the S&P 500, it has not broken out from the upward moving regression channel. The spike in CBOE VIX ( Volatility Index ) following the Goldman Sachs news can be seen from the lower panel of the above chart. The start of an intermediate downtrend is yet to be confirmed in the US markets.

The Updated Momentum Signal Spreadsheet


The updated spreadsheet showing the Momentum Signal as on the close of  16h April 2010, is given below.


The Momentum Signal remained in the sell territory with  values of -100 and  -50 for the the futures and the index respectively. The lower value for the futures may be accounted by the loss  of premium by the futures.

Projected Momentum Signal Close Values

The projected levels of closing values corresponding to momentum shift / neutrality / continuation as on the close of trading on 19th April, 2010 are given in the table below. The table also include the projected closing values of BSE Sensex corresponding to momentum shift / neutrality / continuation.

Please click on the table to enlarge. For more info on the above table,  please click here.

The triggers for the end of the downtrend have remained almost static and are placed at the resistance level indicated earlier at 5305. The values required for the resumption of the uptrend have moved significantly upwards.

As the futures have closed lower for the past four trading days and  it may still  show some tendency for intraday spikes in the next two trading days as happened on the last trading day .


Cheers and Prosperous Investing and Trading !!! 
 
 

© 2010 momentumsignal.blogspot.com All rights reserved.


Disclaimer: No research, information or content contained herein or in the accompanied spreadsheet shall be construed as advice and is offered for information purposes only. We shall not be responsible and disclaim any liability for any loss, liability, damage (whether direct or consequential) or expense of any nature whatsoever which may be suffered by the user or any third party as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to the use of or reliance on any information or service provided. All files/information is provided 'as is' with no warranty or guarantee as to its reliability or accuracy.

Friday, April 16, 2010

Update on The Ultimate Momentum Signal - 16th April, 2010

   Well We Did Trade Down, But Do We Have to be Alone....!

This author had expressed skepticism in the previous post about the sell signal as on Tuesday and suggested that the market may try to test the highs. Well the markets opened higher to test the highs and failed. Then it sold off belying the skepticism and closed at 5275. Now the question is whether the Indian market alone goes in to an intermediate downtrend  when the western markets are still moving upwards. Is this a temporary disconnect or of a permanent nature ?   Well, some of the Asian markets were not exactly moving in tandem with the western markets off late. Are we going to join them ? Traders can still keep a bit of the skepticism for the reasons that it helps in trading and it may keep them watching out for sudden reversals against the position.

Nifty Futures - Daily Chart  

The previous support line at the 5305 to 5310 level may act as the new resistance line.

 

The Updated Momentum Signal Spreadsheet


The updated spreadsheet showing the Momentum Signal as on the close of  15th April 2010, is given below.

The Momentum Signal remained in the sell territory with a value of -50 for the second day.

Projected Momentum Signal Close Values

The projected levels of closing values corresponding to momentum shift / neutrality / continuation as on the close of trading on 16th April, 2010 are given in the table below. The table also include the projected closing values of BSE Sensex corresponding to momentum shift / neutrality / continuation.

   Please click on the table to enlarge. For more info on the above table,  please click here.


The triggers for the end of the downtrend have moved downwards and the values are very near to the last traded prices. The values required for the resumption of the uptrend have moved significantly upwards.The chances of the present sell signal becoming a whipsaw is still there.  Readers of this blog may please note that any momentum indicator may generate  many whipsaws in the markets, wherein the long slow moving rallies may take place. Accordingly, the Ultimate Momentum Signal is also susceptible to whipsaws if the present condition continues. The said fact is already listed in the Risk Factors page of this blog and the same is reproduced here :
Risk Factor 4 :  It is also seen that even if the momentum signals a downward shift by signaling -50 value, in some cases, especially in strong long term bull markets, the momentum shifts again to the opposite within a very short time. In strong bear markets, the opposite may also happen.


   
Cheers and Prosperous Investing and Trading !!! 
 

© 2010 momentumsignal.blogspot.com All rights reserved.


Disclaimer: No research, information or content contained herein or in the accompanied spreadsheet shall be construed as advice and is offered for information purposes only. We shall not be responsible and disclaim any liability for any loss, liability, damage (whether direct or consequential) or expense of any nature whatsoever which may be suffered by the user or any third party as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to the use of or reliance on any information or service provided. All files/information is provided 'as is' with no warranty or guarantee as to its reliability or accuracy.

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Update on The Ultimate Momentum Signal - 15th April, 2010

   Where do we go from here... !

Since the Indian markets closed for the holiday on Tuesday, no major equity markets have traded  lower or closed lower. The world markets are still trading in the low volatility  grinding rally mode.  Hence the Nifty futures may also try to follow the world markets by trading upwards to test the previous high. SEBI - IRDA spat has gone in to a temporary truce by the new order by the SEBI which bans only the introduction of new ULIPs by the insurance companies. The insurance companies are free to market the existing ULIPs schemes and also collect the renewal premium on existing policies. Now the insurance companies or it's regulator can go to a competent court for a decision.

Nifty Futures - Daily Chart  

Although the futures closed below the upward moving support line on the last trading day it can still move in to the channel or reverse from the support line.  Major selling can be expected only below 5290 levels.

The Updated Momentum Signal Spreadsheet


The updated spreadsheet showing the Momentum Signal as on the close of  13th April 2010, is given below.




The Momentum Signal has indicated a sell as on the closing of trade on Tuesday.


Projected Momentum Signal Close Values

The projected levels of closing values corresponding to momentum shift / neutrality / continuation as on the close of trading on 15th April, 2010 are given in the table below. The table also include the projected closing values of BSE Sensex corresponding to momentum shift / neutrality / continuation.


 Please click on the table to enlarge. For more info on the above table,  please click here.


The triggers for the end of the downtrend have moved upward but the values are very near to the last traded prices. The chances of the present sell signal becoming a whipsaw is high.  Readers of this blog may please note that any momentum indicator may generate  many whipsaws in the markets wherein the long slow moving rallies may take place. Accordingly, the Ultimate Momentum Signal is also susceptible to whipsaws if the present condition continues.The said fact is already listed in the Risk Factors page of this blog and the same is reproduced here :
Risk Factor 4 :  It is also seen that even if the momentum signals a downward shift by signaling -50 value, in some cases, especially in strong long term bull markets, the momentum shifts again to the opposite within a very short time. In strong bear markets, the opposite may also happen.

   
Cheers and Prosperous Investing and Trading !!! 
 



© 2010 momentumsignal.blogspot.com All rights reserved.


Disclaimer: No research, information or content contained herein or in the accompanied spreadsheet shall be construed as advice and is offered for information purposes only. We shall not be responsible and disclaim any liability for any loss, liability, damage (whether direct or consequential) or expense of any nature whatsoever which may be suffered by the user or any third party as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to the use of or reliance on any information or service provided. All files/information is provided 'as is' with no warranty or guarantee as to its reliability or accuracy.

Monday, April 12, 2010

Update on The Ultimate Momentum Signal - 13h April, 2010


  Most Problems Solved, But the Earnings Season Arrives....!
  • The Euro finance ministers decided to help Greece by offering as much as 30 billion euros ($41 billion) in loans at below-market interest rates, with another 15 billion euros from the International Monetary Fund.
  • The SEBI - IRDA tussle has been contained for the time being. The truce was arrived by the intervention of the finance ministry which reportedly restores the status before the new SEBI order banning the ULIPs.
  • The US markets are still moving up slowly and were trading at new highs at the time of this post. The US CBOE VIX ( Volatility Index ) was trading at a new thirty month low.
  • Infosys  kick starts the earnings season on 13the April, 2010.
  • Meanwhile the markets traded with neutral to a downward bias leading to an inside day on 12th April, 2010.
Nifty Futures - Daily Chart 



The technical position of the market remained almost the same as before. Major selling can be expected only below 3290 levels.

The Updated Momentum Signal Spreadsheet


The updated spreadsheet showing the Momentum Signal as on the close of  12th April 2010, is given below.

The Momentum Signal has returned a mild negative momentum ( neutral ) after a long time of more than a month.

Projected Momentum Signal Close Values

The projected levels of closing values corresponding to momentum shift / neutrality / continuation as on the close of trading on 12th April, 2010 are given in the table below. The table also include the projected closing values of BSE Sensex corresponding to momentum shift / neutrality / continuation.


Please click on the table to enlarge. For more info on the above table,  please click here.


The closing values required for the continuation of the uptrend have remained static. The triggers for a downtrend have moved upward and are very near to the last closing prices. Readers of this blog may please note that any momentum indicator may generate  many whipsaws in the markets wherein the long slow moving rallies may take place. Accordingly, the Ultimate Momentum Signal is also susceptible to whipsaws if the present condition continues. However, the third method of entry may give better returns at such times.
   
Cheers and Prosperous Investing and Trading !!! 
 


© 2010 momentumsignal.blogspot.com All rights reserved.


Disclaimer: No research, information or content contained herein or in the accompanied spreadsheet shall be construed as advice and is offered for information purposes only. We shall not be responsible and disclaim any liability for any loss, liability, damage (whether direct or consequential) or expense of any nature whatsoever which may be suffered by the user or any third party as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to the use of or reliance on any information or service provided. All files/information is provided 'as is' with no warranty or guarantee as to its reliability or accuracy.

Sunday, April 11, 2010

Update on The Ultimate Momentum Signal - 12h April, 2010

  The Greek Tragedy, Act I Over, But There Is No Act II ...! ( For Now... !)

The markets can be very fickle. It almost never moves up without some down days in between many up days.  Before last Thursday, the markets achieved four up days. So it was waiting for a reason for a small correction. Then came the opportunity to enact the Act I of the long playing Greek debt tragedy. But there wasn't any Act II ( follow up selling ) on Friday. (Well this is valid for a short time. If the opportunity arises again, the markets may again consider it...! ).  Instead it bought off and closed at 5367, almost at at the same area it closed  for most of the last week.

Nifty Futures - Daily Chart


The technical position of the market remains the same. The uptrend is still in continuation and the Nifty futures are still trading in the upward moving regression channel. The supports too remain the same.


Meanwhile, the major international markets are also trading in a very similar manner. The US S&P 500 closed at a new 2010 high last Friday. Please see the chart below.

US S&P 500 - Daily Chart


The CBOE Volatility Index ( VIX ), which shows the implied volatility  embedded in the S&P 500 options, too closed at a post June 2007 low of 16.14. The low close of the VIX indicates the lower risk perceptions by the investors and traders  about the equity markets at present. Hence, the slow and grinding rally may continue for some more time.  

CBOE VIX Index - Daily Chart, Period Feb. 2007 to April 2010



The Updated Momentum Signal Spreadsheet


The updated spreadsheet showing the Momentum Signal as on the close of  9th April 2010, is given below.



Projected Momentum Signal Close Values

The projected levels of closing values corresponding to momentum shift / neutrality / continuation as on the close of trading on 12th April, 2010 are given in the table below. The table also include the projected closing values of BSE Sensex corresponding to momentum shift / neutrality / continuation.
  Please click on the table to enlarge. For more info on the above table,  please click here.

The closing values required for the continuation of the uptrend have stayed static. The triggers for a downtrend have moved upward. Readers of this blog may please note that any momentum indicator may generate  many whipsaws in the markets wherein the long slow moving rallies may takes place. Accordingly, the Ultimate Momentum Signal is also susceptible to whipsaws if the present condition continues. However, the third method of entry may give better returns at such times.
   
Cheers and Prosperous Investing and Trading !!! 


© 2010 momentumsignal.blogspot.com All rights reserved.


Disclaimer: No research, information or content contained herein or in the accompanied spreadsheet shall be construed as advice and is offered for information purposes only. We shall not be responsible and disclaim any liability for any loss, liability, damage (whether direct or consequential) or expense of any nature whatsoever which may be suffered by the user or any third party as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to the use of or reliance on any information or service provided. All files/information is provided 'as is' with no warranty or guarantee as to its reliability or accuracy.