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Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Update on The Ultimate Momentum Signal - 18th, March 2010

  The Breakout - Day 13

  One More Up Day.....!

Some Trader Thoughts
Trading is a boring job for a system trader. Once a trading system is designed and tested, he just needs to follow the rules. Trading the 'Ultimate  Trading System'  is also a boring job to anyone who needs some constant action and thrills. According to the system rules nothing was needed to be done  today with respect to the long positions in the Nifty Futures, except for the raising of the trailing stop to 5160. ( Today's High 5271 - 2.1% = 5160 ).

It seems that all izz well....!
At the time of writing this edition, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJIA ) was trading  at 10768, which is a new high. S&P 500 and Nasdaq are also trading at newer highs. The US VIX has fallen to a new low of 16.54, indicating investor confidence.  Meanwhile, in  the UK markets, the FTSE also closed at a new high. The German DAX and the Japanese NIKKEI also closed within a percent of their  January 2010 highs. We may also test our January highs barring unforeseen events. It seems that all izz well for the time being.

Nifty Futures - Daily Chart
The Updated Momentum Signal Spreadsheet 


The updated spreadsheet showing the Momentum Signal as on the close of   17th March 2010, is given below.
  You can click on the table to enlarge. For more info on the above table,  please click here.

The Momentum Signal has returned the maximum value of +100 for the thirteenth consecutive day indicating the continuation of the uptrend according to the system.

 Projected Momentum Signal Close Values

The projected levels of closing values required for momentum shift / neutrality / continuation as on the close  of trading  on 18th March 2010 are given in the table below. The table also include the projected closing values of BSE Sensex required for momentum shift / neutrality / continuation.

You can click on the table to enlarge. For more info on the above table,  please click here.

Even though the trading system rules recommends a trailing stop loss of 2.5 % from the maximum favorable excursion, it stands reduced to 2.1 % from yesterday, due to the long nature of the uptrend and the significant non - participation by some of the Nifty constituents in the current rally.  The  new stop loss point is at 5160.


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